PRICE FORECASTING OF STRATEGIC FOOD COMMODITIES IN VARIOUS MARKETS IN MALANG REGENCY: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ARMA-GARCH MODEL

Fluctuations in food prices can trigger vulnerability, disrupting people's access to food. This study aims predict the of strategic commodities: rice, corn, shallots, garlic, cayenne pepper, large chilies, chicken meat, eggs, beef, cooking oil, and granulated sugar at wholesaler level district. Poor. The research method used is ARMA-GARCH forecasting method. Price carried out on all commodities Malang Regency shows a fluctuating pattern with tendency for price increases, an average change increasing gradually each period. causality relationship various markets about changes unidirectional two-way pattern.